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Probability of Getting Married Using Various Predictions

 

Probability of getting married using various predictions

Exhibit 3-4: Probability of marriage transition at selected ages, women

Probability of first marriage by age, women

Comments

At age 25 versus at age 35

44 percent of women are married at age 25. The number increases to 78 percent at age 35.

By race, American-born Latinas are most likely to have married at age 25. Just 24 percent of black women are most likely to have married at age 25. At age 35, 85 percent of Asian women and 84 percent of white women are most likely to have married. Just 58 percent of black women are most likely to have married, proving that black women move the slowest into marriage.

By education, women with a high school diploma (53 percent) are most likely to have married at age 25, closely followed by women with no high school diploma (50 percent). Conversely, women who stay in school longer are least likely to have married – master‘s degree (29 percent) and bachelor‘s degree (27 percent).

At age 35, women who stayed in school longer would have overtaken their less-educated counterparts – 84 percent for those with a bachelor‘s degree and 78 percent for those with a master‘s degree or higher.

By religion, those from a very conservative religious background are most likely to have married (51 percent) at age 25 and those with no religious background are least likely to have married. At age 35, 83 percent of those from a very conservative religious background are most likely to have married and those with no religious background are least likely to have married (74 percent)

Those who have a baby before getting married are less likely to have married at age 25 – just 31 percent.

Those who do not have a baby outside wedlock are more likely to have married – 50 percent. At age 35, probability of marriage for those who had a baby out of wedlock improves to 61 percent. Similarly, the probability of marriage for those who did not have a baby outside marriage increases to 86 percent.

Those who have lived with a partner of the opposite sex are least likely to have married at age 25 – just 38 percent. Those who did not live with a partner before marriage are more likely to have married – 53 percent. At age 35, probability of marriage is roughly the same whether you cohabited or not – 77 percent and 80 percent, respectively.

Exhibit 3-5: Probability of first marriage at selected ages, men

Probability of first marriage by age, men

Probability of Marriage at different eduaction levels is Limited to men and women aged 22–44 years

Comments

Men move slower into marriage than women at all ages and criteria. In general, less than 40 percent of men are married by age 25 using the various criteria.

At age 25 versus at age 35

36 percent of men are married at age 25 and it increases to 75 percent at age 35

By race, white men are most likely to have married at age 25. Just 12 percent of Asian men are most likely to have married at age 25, the lowest. At age 35, 80 percent of Asian men and 74 percent of white men are most likely to have married. Similar percentage of black men and American-born Latino men are most likely to have married, 61 percent and 60 percent respectively.

By education, men with no high school diploma (38 percent) are most likely to have married at age 25, closely followed by men with a high school diploma (35 percent). Conversely, men who stay in school longer are least likely to have married – master‘s degree (23 percent) and bachelor‘s degree (25 percent).

At age 35, men who stayed in school longer would have overtaken their less-educated counterparts – 73 percent for those with a bachelor‘s degree and 81 percent for those with a master‘s degree or higher.

By religion, Protestant men are most likely to have married (36 percent) at age 25 and those from other religious background are least likely to have married at similar levels. At age 35, 84 percent of those from a very conservative religious background are most likely to have married and those with no religious background are least likely to have married (62 percent)

Those who have a baby before getting married are less likely to have married at age 25 – just 23 percent.

Those who do not have a baby outside wedlock are also less likely to have married – 34 percent. At age 35, probability of marriage for those who had a baby out of wedlock improves to 58 percent. Similarly, the probability of marriage for those who did not have a baby outside marriage increases to 75 percent.

Those who have lived with a partner of the opposite sex are least likely to have married at age 25 – just 28 percent. Those who did not live with a partner before marriage are more likely to have married – 36 percent.

At age 35, probability of marriage is roughly the same whether you cohabited or not – 70 percent and 71 percent, respectively.

Exhibit 3-6: Probability of first marriage reaching selected anniversaries

Probability of a first marriage reaching 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year and 20-Year anniversaries

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